The recent drop in U.S. Covid-19 infections is showing signs of flattening, public-health officials and experts say, warning that a high plateau fueled by pandemic fatigue could lead to a fourth surge.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University shows that in more than 15 states, the average number of new cases over the past seven days is greater than the average number of cases over the past 14 days. Those states include Texas, Arkansas, New Jersey and Mississippi.
From mid-January to Feb. 23, that ratio had been in the single digits, and hit zero on Jan. 24, signaling that the surge, likely related to the holidays, had ended.
Newly reported cases in the U.S. have fallen significantly from a high of nearly 300,000 in January, but they remain elevated. Data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that the seven-day average for new cases sits at 63,938, roughly the same level as the peak of cases during the country’s summer surge.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky warned Wednesday of troubling signs in the pandemic’s trajectory, saying newly reported cases are leveling off at rates that could lead to a potential resurgence. The seven-day average of new cases has increased from the prior seven days by 3.5%, and the seven-day average of deaths increased 2.2% from the previous seven days, she said.
“We are at a critical nexus in the pandemic,” Dr. Walensky said at a White House press briefing. “So much can turn in the next few weeks.”
Public-health experts say the possible plateau can be attributed to a few factors, but fatigue is the overriding issue. Mask mandates and business restrictions are being rolled back in several states. Federal officials and public-health experts have warned of growing, general fatigue over the use of masks and abiding by social-distancing recommendations, with President Biden on Wednesday calling decisions to loosen protective measures a “big mistake.”
The vaccine rollout, which is speeding up across the U.S., has perhaps caused some people to relax their behavior, too, public-health experts said.
As more economic activities are opening, there’s been a drop in the overall number of people seeking Covid-19 testing, they said.
The average number of tests conducted per day in February was less than the average per day in January, according to data from the Covid Tracking Project.
“Everyone is completely tired of this thing,” said Dr. Timothy Schacker, vice dean for research at the University of Minnesota Medical School and an infectious-disease physician.
The warning signs for another wave are all present, Dr. Schacker said: the relaxing of standards, decreases in testing and an increase in the number of more-infectious variants.
The current plateau and uptick, however, can’t be directly attributed to variants because the U.S. isn’t doing enough genomic sequencing of samples to know, he said. “But the more we look, the more we’re finding,” Dr. Schacker said.
While peaks in cases last spring and summer dropped fairly quickly, now it’s surge upon surge, according to Dr. Brian Strom, chancellor of Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences in New Jersey.
The current uptick in cases across the U.S. isn’t likely tied to the Super Bowl, when public-health officials warned against large gatherings, he said. But it is possible that the slight rise could be attributable to the Presidents Day holiday about two weeks ago, he said.
At Rutgers, said Dr. Strom, the university conducts more than 10,000 Covid-19 tests each week of students and employees. In recent clusters of cases on campus, he said, contact tracing found the spread was tied to students disregarding public-health guidance and the presence of variants.
Of some 100 recent specimens from Covid-19 positive patients at Rutgers, he said, 10 came back showing the variant first identified in the U.K., called B.1.1.7, or one that has been identified among Covid-19 patients in New York City.
“That’s high,” said Dr. Strom. “When you start seeing a larger and larger percentage of them being variants, you’ll know that’s a significant problem. It doesn’t mean it was ‘the problem,’ but it is ‘a problem.’ ”