The world’s thirst for gasoline isn’t likely to return to pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Agency forecast, calling a peak for the fuel that has powered personal transportation for more than a century.
The Paris-based energy watchdog, in its closely followed five-year forecast, said an accelerating global shift toward electric vehicles, along with increasing fuel efficiency among gasoline-powered fleets, will more than outweigh demand growth from developing countries.
The forecast comes as auto makers have pivoted recently to boost their EV fleets, after years of industry skepticism about whether car buyers would ever embrace fully electric models. General Motors Co. said it would stop selling gas-powered vehicles by 2035. Volvo Cars of Sweden has said it would be all-electric by 2030.
Some 60 million electric vehicles will be on the roads world-wide by 2026, the IEA said, up from 7.2 million in 2019. The agency tracks EV trends as a signal for gasoline and crude-oil demand.
The shift toward electric vehicles has been driven by government regulation, hefty incentives in developed countries and broader consumer acceptance of the technology thanks in part to popular models like those sold by Tesla Inc. EVs still make up a small proportion of the world’s overall fleet, and auto makers say they expect to see growing demand for gas-burning internal combustion engines, particularly in the developing world, for years to come.