This is the start of something big. After 11 years of Joe vs. the Pro, the grand experiment is expanding the universe and welcoming in a new player to the competition.
Everyone needs a hero to save us from the fear and loathing of 2020, and the great Ben Abercrombie is here for Joe to offer some of his signature courage and strength. Most importantly, the Hero is here to win, and teach Joe about picking football games. Everyone knows he needs the help.
Joe vs. the Pro was a lot of fun, but “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero” is the new way we’re going to celebrate the game we cherish and the people we care about. No one works harder than the Hero. Nobody. Abercrombie played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben, and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com, and his mortal pick’em enemy is Lee Sterling, a professional college football handicapper. They’re both honored to be joined by Abercrombie for this wild ride through the 2020 college football season and beyond.
What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a service to society.
What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? We’re all about to find out. So far, the Pro has beaten Joe every year except two. The Pro features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but he fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe.
There’s an old saying around these parts: fade Joe for dough.
Alabama safety Jared Mayden grabs Ole Miss quarterback John Rhys Plumlee at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Sept. 28, 2019, in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Don’t forget about Plumlee in the rain.Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
BACKSTROKING INTO WEEK 3
Hurricane Delta is coming on Saturday, so they’re talking about moving Alabama vs. Ole Miss to a different day or possibly later in the year. What, they can play football during a pandemic, but they’re scared of a little rain? Moving the game would favor Alabama. When no one can throw the ball because of a bad storm, it helps to have one of the fastest quarterbacks in the country as a backup (Ole Miss’ John Rhys Plumlee). We haven’t seen much of Plumlee this season, but he’s a legitimate threat and wouldn’t it be just Lane Kiffin to hold some of his secrets until his first big game against Alabama. If Kiffin wants to keep Alabama’s offense off the field, then running the ball in the rain would be the way to do it. Joe made it rain at the club after nailing his picks. Check out last week!
LAST WEEK
Joe: 4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread
Pro: 4-2 straight up, 4-2 against the spread
Hero: 4-2 straight up, 2-4 against the spread
Notes: Joe missed comically with Alabama and Auburn, but saved the week by nailing Arkansas. Everyone, laugh at Joe’s headline from last week.
OVERALL
Joe: 9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread
Pro: 8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread
Hero: 9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread
Notes: The Pro is locked in Tennessee at 2-0. The Hero is riding the South Carolina cover kings at 2-0 with Gamecocks. Naturally, that means Joe kicked South Carolina to the curb this week because he cheats. On to the picks!
Florida tight end Kyle Pitts is flexing into Week 3. (AP Photo/John Raoux)AP
No.4 Florida (2-0) at No.21 Texas A&M (1-1)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
TV: ESPN
Series: Tied 2-2
Spread: Florida by 6.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Texas A&M is playing its fourth SEC opponent ranked in the top five nationally over its last five regular-season games. Tough league.
Joe says: Alabama quarterback Mac Jones torched Texas A&M’s secondary, and now the Aggies get Florida’s Kyle Trask. Will that experience against Alabama help Texas A&M? It can’t hurt. Texas A&M has some talented players on defense, they just weren’t ready for Alabama’s speed. Mike Elko was supposed to be a great hire at defensive coordinator, so it’s time for him to start earning that $2.1 million salary. Elko has some film on Florida TE Kyle Pitts after two games, so if Pitts catches three more touchdown passes at Kyle Field I might just fill out the top of my Heisman ballot on Saturday afternoon. Texas A&M had more rushing yards than Alabama last week (not by much, but still), so that’s something to build upon. Limit the turnovers, and Texas A&M has a chance here believe it or not. Pour me another shot of whiskey and let’s get frisky!
Joe’s pick: Texas A&M 31, Florida 28
Pro says: After a few games, Florida quarterback Kyle Trask looks like the 2020 version of Joe Burrow. He’s completing 71.8 percent of his passes, and averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. Even if Texas A&M tries to play five or six defensive backs on first or second down, the Gators should have success running the football with their 5.2 yards per attempt running game. Due to Texas A&M having their best wide receiver opt out due to COVID, it appears Aggies quarterback Kellen Mond has become a game manager and not a game-changer. Jimbo Fisher is just 4-8 against the spread since mid 2019 while the Gators are 6-2 under Dan Mullen as an SEC visitor. I don’t normally lay road chalk, but in this case it’s the only way to go.
Pro’s pick: Florida 35, Texas A&M 24
Hero says: This could be the weekend that A&M finally shows up for a big game. However, Kyle Trask and the Gator offense has so many weapons including TE Kyle Pitts that the Aggies will have a tough time matching scores with UF. Jimbo will find holes in the Gator defense so this could get interesting if the Gators turn the ball over.
Hero’s pick: Florida 38, Texas A&M 27
UAB wide receiver Myron Mitchell is tackled by Tennessee defensive back Alontae Taylor and linebacker Henry To’o To’o. To’o To’o is one of the top linebackers in the SEC this season. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)AP
No.14 Tennessee (2-0) at No.3 Georgia (2-0)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Sanford Stadium, Sat.
TV: CBS
Series: Georgia leads 24-23-2.
Spread: Georgia by 12.5.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Tennessee is the only team in the SEC that hasn’t committed a turnover.
Joe says: Welcome back to prime time, Tennessee. Now the whole nation gets to hear Rocky Top on loop while they pray for the safety of quarterback Jarrett Guarantano the way everyone was worrying about Auburn quarterback Bo Nix last week against the Bulldogs. Kirby Smart’s defense, led by linebackers Monty Rice and Azeez Ojulari, held Auburn to 3.5 yards per play. What a performance. Tennessee’s defense will be up to the challenge early at home. Tennessee has won eight straight. Are the Vols back? The confidence is there, Guarantano is now a hero to the hill tribes of East Tennessee, the offensive linemen are experienced and Cade Mays (Georgia transfer) knows all the tricks. I wanna see some Vols party in their overalls.
Joe’s pick: Tennessee 24, Georgia 21
Pro says: Probably the hardest game of the six to pick out because we might have seen a ceiling for Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett, and Tennessee is improved but we aren’t sure if they are elite yet. Tennessee would love to run the ball, and then use play action as the game wears on. They ran the ball 51 times last week while only throwing it just 23 times in their rout of Missouri. I doubt that happens as Georgia has one of the top five defenses in the country and Auburn with probably similar talent on the offensive line and running back position couldn’t run much versus the stout Bulldog front seven. Slight lean to Georgia as long as the line stays under two touchdowns.
Pro’s pick: Georgia 30, Tennessee 13
Hero says: Both teams were dominant in easy victories last week. This should be a slugfest at the line of scrimmage. The Vols seem to have a strong enough defense and O-line to play with the top teams in the SEC, but may need a few more offensive playmakers to beat a powerhouse like Georgia. The UGA quarterback play has not been great so far this year but they showed enough balance last week on offense to win most games with their outstanding defense. Even though the Vols winning streak should end in Athens this Saturday, Jeremy Pruitt and Tennessee will make enough plays to make it very interesting in the second half.
Hero’s pick: Georgia 27, Tennessee 17
Arkansas defensive lineman Eric Gregory trips Mississippi State quarterback K.J. Costello. The Bulldogs fell flat on their faces in Week 2.AP Photo/Thomas Graning
Mississippi State (0-2) at Kentucky (0-2)
When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky.
TV: SEC Network
Series: Mississippi State leads 24-23.
Spread: Kentucky by 2.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: The home team in this series is 5-0 against the spread dating back to 2015.
Joe says: Four turnovers by the Bulldogs against Arkansas brought Mississippi State back down to reality after the season-opening shocker. State ran off 84 offensive plays in the loss compared to just 65 for Arkansas. Mississippi State blew it, in other words. Then there’s Kentucky … oh, Kentucky. How does an SEC team rush over 400 yards in an SEC football game and lose? The horror. The depravity. The Wildcats had 408 yards rushing and six touchdowns on the ground. The secondary is worrisome after giving up seven passing touchdowns in two games to Auburn and Ole Miss. This is a tough game to handicap, and Vegas clearly has no idea what’s going on. Three upsets in a row? Time to pour some more Kentucky rye and try to not cry.
Joe’s pick: Mississippi State 35, Kentucky 28
Pro says: Both teams had running back injuries that might have been part of the reason both lost last week. Kentucky running back Kavosiey Smoke might be lost for a few more weeks while Kylin Hill should be back for this game. Mississippi State isn’t as good as they showed against LSU, but not as bad as they played against Arkansas. The Kentucky secondary has allowed seven touchdown passes in two games and 9.9 yards per attempt. The Pirate is 15-8 against the spread as an underdog since his days at Washington State and I’ll ride him here plus the points.
Pro’s pick: Mississippi State 36, Kentucky 33
Hero says: Both teams had tough losses last week. Everyone will try to duplicate the defensive game plan that Arkansas used last week to slow down Leach’s Air Raid offense, but I imagine that the Pirate discussed the need to throw check down passes and avoid throwing into triple coverage with his QB K.J. Costello this week. My feeling is that even though the gritty Wildcats will put up a fight, the Bulldogs’ “Basketball on Grass” offense will have more than enough success this week in Lexington to continue UK’s poor start to this season.
Hero’s pick: Mississippi State 38, Kentucky 28
Miami coach Manny Diaz has the Hurricanes playing like one of the best teams in the country. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee, File)AP
No.7 Miami (3-0, 2-0) at No.1 Clemson (3-0, 3-0)
When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Memorial Stadium, Clemson, S.C.
TV: ABC
Series: Miami leads 6-5
Spread: Clemson by 14.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Per UM, “the charm of Turnover Chain 4.0 weighs 300 grams. There are 1,400 sapphire stones in the “U” – half green and half orange. The state of Florida portion of the charm has 1,900 white sapphires.”
Joe says: The Turnover Chain was swinging pretty much the entire game against FSU two weeks ago, but Trevor Lawrence hasn’t thrown an interception this season. A pick by the Canes’ secondary could be the difference here with D’Eriq King at quarterback. This line is way off, in my opinion. Vegas has no respect for the Canes, but last week Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong moved the ball well (89 yards rushing and 270 yards passing) against Clemson’s defense. His two interceptions were the problem. Cam’Ron Harris is a quality runner and we all know King is electric. They’ll keep the Tigers’ defense honest and keep this one close. Why sober up now? Give me a Bacardi and a South Beach party.
Joe’s pick: Miami 38, Clemson 28
Pro says: The Hurricanes’ offense is in its best shape since the early or mid 2000′s when Ken Dorsey and Brock Berlin were running the show at the quarterback position. Miami has gone from averaging 367 yards per game in 2019 to 499 yards per game this season.The problem with taking Miami, which is so much improved this year compared to the 6-7 season of last year, is they still have a weak offensive line, two poor defensive tackles, inexperienced linebackers, average at best cornerbacks and Manny Diaz as their head coach. I look for Clemson to be motivated for the first time all season as running back Travis Etienne (6.2 yards per carry) and quarterback Trevor Lawrence (seven TDs without a pick) to be too much for the Miami defense. Clemson also covered seven straight against the spread at home before the lackluster 41-23 win last week against Virginia.
Pro’s pick: Clemson 45, Miami 24
Hero says: Finally a Clemson game that may be worth watching after the first quarter! Miami will put up a fight with their much-improved offense, but the Fightin’ Dabos should pull away in the second half. Look for Clemson to give Trevor Lawrence the opportunity to keep throwing late in the game to rack up Heisman points in one of the few big games they will play this year.
Hero’s pick: Clemson 38, Miami 20
J.J. Peques rushes the ball for the first down during the game between Auburn and Georgia at Samford Stadium. Auburn’s rushing attack struggled last week in Athens. Mandatory Credit: Todd Van Emst/AU Athletics
Todd Van Emst/AU Athletics
Arkansas (1-1) at No.13 Auburn (1-1)
When: 3 p.m., Sat.
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn
TV: SEC Network
Series: Auburn leads 17-11-1.
Spread: Auburn by 14.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Bumper Pool had 20 tackles for Arkansas last week against Mississippi State. That’s the stat.
GOODMAN: For Bo Nix, Auburn’s annual pig roast is perfectly timed
Joe says: When Auburn running back Tank Bigsby collides with Bumper Pool for the first time on Saturday the SEC Network should begin working on an oral history project to remember the moment. Incredible names. Have a feeling we’ll be hearing them a lot. I wasn’t prepared mentally for Auburn’s complete beat down by Georgia last week. Clearly Auburn wasn’t ready. Arkansas is usually great medicine for what ails Auburn’s offense. This week, you get the feeling it’s going to be about survival. Does anyone remember Gus Malzahn saying this was one of his deepest and most complete teams at Auburn? Nix the chasers if you start losing papers.
Joe’s pick: Auburn 42, Arkansas 18
Pro says: Arkansas is much improved on the defensive side of the ball, but offensively behind Florida grad transfer quarterback Felipe Franks the Razorbacks have been able to only muster 24 points in two games. Last week, they employed 6 defensive backs against the Mississippi State “Air Raid offense” and it worked. They’ll have to junk that defense and try to hold the Auburn running attack down. Gus Malzahn always seems to get his team fired up to play his home state school. He has won and covered the last 4 games by 31 points or more. You’re getting great line value here as Auburn looked horrible last week against Georgia, and Arkansas upset Mississippi State. Sometimes you have to lay it if you want to play it.
Pro’s pick: Auburn 38, Arkansas 17
Hero says: The Razorbacks earned a great victory last week in Starkville while the Tigers were manhandled in Athens. Auburn’s offense may continue to struggle some against a good Hog defense, but I am not sure that the Arkansas offense can score enough in Jordan-Hare to win. Gus has owned Arkansas since he has been the head coach at Auburn and I don’t expect that to change this year even though the Hogs will keep it close the entire game.
Hero’s pick: Auburn 24, Arkansas 16
Alabama wide receiver John Metchie III will have no problems finding the end zone against Ole Miss. (Photo by Crimson Tide Photos)Crimson Tide Photos / UA Athletics
No.2 Alabama (2-0) at Ole Miss (1-1)
When: 5 p.m., Sat.
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss.
TV: ESPN
Series: Alabama leads 51-10-2.
Spread: Alabama by 24.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Alabama has won 92 consecutive games against unranked opponents.
GOODMAN: Plenty of fresh water awaits Alabama at Ole Miss
Joe says: Lane Kiffin’s greatest skill in life to date has been his ability to remain employed despite one epic implosion after another at high-profile jobs. Credit goes to his intellect and to his agent. With Ole Miss, he has a chance to build a name for himself once again, and Alabama helped him along the way. Of course, it was mutually beneficial until it wasn’t. Saban wants to bury Saban on Saturday, but it’s hard to defend in the rain. Matt Corral is a quality passer and receiver Elijiah Moore has proven he can get open against any defense. They should start playing “Crazy Train” when Ole Miss takes the field. If you’re watching at home like me, match every touchdown with a fresh beer. Stay wet if you’re going to bet!
Joe’s pick: Alabama 52, Arkansas 35
Pro says: The Nick Saban-Lane Kiffin stare down before the game and shots of them during the game might end up being more exciting than the game itself. I expect the Crimson Tide offense to score at will, but their defense did give up 27 first downs last week and 450 total yards against Texas A&M. Some other food for thought is Alabama is just 1-7 against the spread after playing Texas A&M and Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral and Lane Kiffin should be able to scheme up and execute an offense that might be able to score mid 30s against a tired Alabama if they push tempo. Saban will win easy, but 24 points is a lot of wood to lay to a team that has offensive weapons.
Pro’s pick: Alabama 52, Mississippi 34
Hero says: I expect there will be a lot of offense in this game even if it is played in the middle of a hurricane. Lane Kiffin (aka Joey Freshwater) has had this game marked on his calendar ever since he was kissing babies at the Oxford airport! Nick Saban is not known to focus too much on any one regular-season game, but you know he does not want Lane to be the first assistant to beat him. Ole Miss may jump out to an early lead, but look for Alabama to emphasize the running game to keep Lane’s offense off the field. Bad weather conditions usually favor the underdog, so it will be tough for the Tide to cover 24 on the road against an improving Rebel team.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 45, Ole Miss 24