CLEVELAND, Ohio — If you were one of the 26 million who watched the return of the NFL on Thursday then you already know how Browns-Chiefs will end come Sunday.
Whichever offense has the ball last will win. It didn’t matter that Dallas kicked a go-ahead field goal with 1:22 to play. The Cowboys left too much time for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Brady moved Tampa Bay into field goal range in eight plays, set up by a 24-yard back-shoulder completion to receiver Chris Godwin.
When two talented teams meet it’s best to have possession last. That’s an oversimplification for a matchup featuring two high-octane offenses, but ultimately I expect Browns-Chiefs II to be close throughout.
These two teams met last January, the Chiefs won 22-17. On Sunday, I’m predicting the Browns avenge their loss and win 28-24. I understand Cleveland is a near-touchdown underdog playing a humbled Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Andy Reid at Arrowhead Stadium.
But this Browns team doesn’t resemble the 2020-21 squad that ran out of go-to plays last year and played with slow foot speed. GM Andrew Berry remade his defense, adding athletic freaks Jadeveon Clowney, Malik Jackson and Takk McKinley upfront. On the backend, fans will appreciate safety John Johnson III immediately.
I expect the fifth-year safety to play over the top of Hill or near the box against Kelce all game.
A bunch of new pass rushers plus a stud safety and I’m only halfway through a major reason why the Browns will win on Sunday. The element of surprise is on their side. Let’s unpack that further and detail a few more reasons why the Browns will start their Super Bowl-hopeful season 1-0.
The element of surprise
Cleveland Browns safety John Johnson III puts his helmet on as he waits for his turn in coverage drills during an organized team activity, June 9, 2021, in Berea.John Kuntz, cleveland.com
The Browns have a chance to catch Kansas City off-guard. There isn’t tape on Joe Woods’ new defense. Imagine Kelce was a top NBA scorer. Defenses understand they cannot stop him but making his 25 point-per-game nights difficult would be the goal by throwing multiple long, rangy defenders at him.
On a football field, that’s exactly how the Browns can attack Kelce. Assuming safeties Grant Delpit and Ronnie Harrison play (both listed as questionable), Woods can rotate defenders and consistently bother the All-Pro tight end. That was a luxury unavailable last January when safeties Karl Joseph and Andrew Sendejo each played a bunch.
Throwing elite athletes at Kelce that he hasn’t studied in this system should hinder him. If those safeties aren’t enough then enter rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. Yet another newcomer ready to surprise the Chiefs.
Offensively, the Browns will look similar to their first meeting. But Stefanski has a chance to sprinkle in surprises at opportune moments. Cleveland played mostly 11 personnel (three receivers) and deployed Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Jarvis Landry for the majority of snaps because that was all they had.
On Sunday, Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to return. Rookie burner Anthony Schwartz provides speed Cleveland desperately missed. Even rookie receiving running back Demetric Felton could provide a spark.
The defense should play simple yet fast, allowing their athletes to compete. Double Hill and Kelce on every snap, forcing the Chiefs’ depth (or lack thereof) to beat them. Berry drafted or added speed on both sides of the ball. Time to use it.
Saving perfect plays for late
Nick Chubb tries to shrug off Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu last January. AP
Tyrann Mathieu dominated Cleveland in January. Pro Football Focus rated him a 91 grade, 20 points better than any other Chiefs defender. He blew up runs by attacking fullbacks and pulling guards. His third-quarter interception bested Baker Mayfield and his mouth never stopped.
He’s the lifeblood of the Chiefs defense and hasn’t been activated yet from the COVID-19 reserve list. Regardless of his status, the Browns must be ready to capitalize in late-game opportunities.
Mathieu helped fluster Cleveland early and then Stefanski ran out of go-to plays late. That cannot happen again. Stefanski called an early screen to tight end David Njoku, an option run with Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb and a quarterback keeper off the right edge. All innovative designs that were exhausted too early.
On Sunday when the game is close, expect Stefanski to have a few left in the chamber. People around the league call him one of the quickest studies they’ve ever met. Meaning the Browns will execute their late-game situations and continue scoring into the fourth quarter.
Avoid playing from behind the sticks
Rashard Higgins (82) fumbles after a big hit at the goal line by Chiefs safety Daniel Sorensen last January. AP
Many point to Rashard Higgins’ fumble via a helmet-to-helmet no-call in the end zone as a primary reason Cleveland lost. But the Browns were having serious offensive issues prior to nearly scoring before half. On their first three drives, Cleveland kicked a field goal, punted and fumbled. Also, Kareem Hunt didn’t have a first-half touch.
The Browns played from second-and-10 or worse on eight of their first 20 plays and twice on their first three plays to start the third quarter.
On their two touchdown drives after the break, they faced second-and-10 only once over 19 plays. The reason? No wasted snaps. Nick Chubb had two pivotal second-quarter drops. Any Gotta Watch the Tape listeners know he shouldn’t be a focal point of pass plays in KC. The Chiefs understood the tendencies that precluded a Chubb screen and blew them up.
Lastly, fullback Andy Janovich shouldn’t see the field. His time will come next week when the Browns are milking a second-half lead against Houston. But his 38 overall PFF grade and poor tape suggest the Chiefs enjoy his presence. He tips off where runs are going and isn’t a threat in the passing game.
What we learned
Have I been too optimistic? Am I overlooking the fact Mahomes has a 32-0 touchdown to interception ratio in September? How about his 10 career September wins versus only nine sacks. Boy Wonder (I don’t know if others call him that but we should) averages 330 passing yards per September game and a QBR of 90.
(Checks calendar. … Yikes.)
Compare that to the Browns’ winless opener streak and things quickly turn bleak. But this game must be examined in a vacuum. The Browns are healthy. The element of surprise is at their disposal and Stefanski has never lost back-to-back games.
Therefore, the Browns win a game that rivals Thursday night’s classic. Enjoy.
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